Folkestone 13:10 - Dave's Dream
2m 1f, Class 5 Maiden Hurdle - Heavy
Nicky Henderson is a trainer to follow at the moment with a further 2 winners at Ascot on Saturday. He has an eye catching 29% strike rate with his novices this year as he looks to unleash another hurdler in the shape of Dave's Dream at Folkestone today. The Bay Gelding's bumper form looks exceptional as the 2nd and 3rd have subsequently been very impressive over timber. 2nd at Warwick, Carruthers beat a useful type in Souffleur last time and is installed as one of the favourites for the staying novice hurdle at the festival. Dave's Dream is expected to live up to the hype and beat the increasingly frustrating Bremen.
1st 5/6f
Statistics and strike rates are all very well, but you have to put in the performance in to match it. That's exactly what Dave's Dream did. Always travelling well, Nicky Henderson's novice jumped smartly and quickened off a modest pace to run on by 4l. The bridesmaid again was Bremen who finished well clear of the 3rd Captain Tidds.
Folkestone 15:40 - Nike Walker
2m 1f, Class 4 Handicap Hurdle - Heavy
A horse the Analyst followed with great interest last year, Nike Walker looks to add another course & distance win to his CV. This french import ran up a hat-trick in novice hurdles last year, defying what ever the handicapper threw at him. Entered in a Class 1, hurdle at Wincanton last time, Nike Walker ran well for a long way before falling at the last when starting to get outpaced. That was a huge step in class, however did represent the regard in which he is held at the Pipe yard. Back to more favourable ground and on a tight track that suits front runners, I expect him to lead from pillar to post. After last weeks abandonment of Folkestone, Najca De Thaix is lining up today over hurdles. The Analyst will take a former selection on and wait for another appearance over fences where he is more favourably treated.
UP 15/8f
As a punter you will sometimes look at a market develop throughout the course of a day and then reflect on a race and ask "how did that horse not win?" It seemed as though every man and his dog was on Nike Walker today as it was hammered down from a best price of 7/2 in the morning to 7/4 before eventually going off as the 15/8f. Travelling and jumping well for the most part, the tank seemed to empty jumping two out and he was left to get home in his own time by sympathetic Tom Scudamore. I've no doubt that David Pipe will be disappointed by the showing, however if it proves to be something more serious than just a lack of gas then the Pipeline is place to find out. (see link)
I must mention the fact the Jonjo O'Neill had a double at Folkestone today and this might just be the start of that stables revival. The Analyst will be paying special attention to his runners and riders in the coming weeks.
